Mean Equation Forecast

Discussions of ARCH, GARCH, and related models
Jules89
Posts: 140
Joined: Thu Jul 14, 2016 5:32 am

Mean Equation Forecast

Unread post by Jules89 »

Hello everybody,
I have got a very basic question. I want to do forecats with the mean equation of a GARCH(1,1) model. All books, manuals etc only explain the condtional variance forecast of the GARCH model. But I want to do conditional mean forecast. Is there any procedure which I can use?
I thougt about estimating the GARCH(1,1) then take the coefficients and plug them into an equation und then use the UFORECAST routine.
Would that work?

Thank you very much
TomDoan
Posts: 7814
Joined: Wed Nov 01, 2006 4:36 pm

Re: Mean Equation Forecast

Unread post by TomDoan »

Yes. Unless you have "M" terms (so the variance feeds into the mean), the forecasts of the mean just use the mean model and ignore the variance model. If you input the mean model into GARCH using EQUATION or MODEL, you can just use those directly.
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