Inflation expectations dynamic factor model
Posted: Sun May 30, 2021 5:38 pm
Hi,
I am trying to apply a Aruoba's term structure of inflation expectations model (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media ... 33C0BBF827) to Australian inflation expectations data.
I am running into a couple of problems with my DLM instruction:
## DLM2. No Observations Produce Valid Output. Check Data and Initial Values
While quite informative, I am not sure what I should be checking. It could be my starting values for my parameters, although I wouldn't say they are completely un-reasonable.
I was hoping someone could provide some guidance on how to proceed. I've attached my code and data below. Note, my data has quite a few missing observations, although this is something that the KF should be able to handle. In any case, I did try a version with data backcast, but still had no success.
Thanks
Adam
I am trying to apply a Aruoba's term structure of inflation expectations model (https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media ... 33C0BBF827) to Australian inflation expectations data.
I am running into a couple of problems with my DLM instruction:
## DLM2. No Observations Produce Valid Output. Check Data and Initial Values
While quite informative, I am not sure what I should be checking. It could be my starting values for my parameters, although I wouldn't say they are completely un-reasonable.
I was hoping someone could provide some guidance on how to proceed. I've attached my code and data below. Note, my data has quite a few missing observations, although this is something that the KF should be able to handle. In any case, I did try a version with data backcast, but still had no success.
Thanks
Adam