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Real Time Business Cycle Dating with DFMS

Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 6:37 am
by danon
Hi dear Mr Tom, I am working on Markov-switching Dynamic factor model.
I would like to know if you have a detailed examples for REAL TIME marov switching like in the attached paper (Codes are available but in GAUSS).
Need to buy that one if it exists.
Best regards

Danon

Re: Real Time Business Cycle Dating with DFMS

Posted: Thu Jul 12, 2018 10:37 am
by TomDoan
Am I missing something, or is this a 2012 working paper that's never been published?

The Kim filter is covered in detail in the Structural Breaks and Switching Models e-course. Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti uses mixed frequency data. It looks like what they're doing is a combination of the two of those. However, I would be somewhat skeptical about how well this actually would work---the Kim filter has accuracy problems to start (for computing an approximate log likelihood), and using it with a state-space model as vague as a factor model seems like a bad idea.

Re: Real Time Business Cycle Dating with DFMS

Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2018 2:00 am
by danon
Hi Tom,
I do understand, i am better use the GAUSS code available!?
Best regards

Danon

Re: Real Time Business Cycle Dating with DFMS

Posted: Tue Jul 24, 2018 10:06 am
by TomDoan
If you want to pursue that, yes. I just think you'll find that it's not worth the effort.