Search found 27 matches

by fioramanti
Fri Jan 26, 2018 10:32 am
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: DLM, TVC and GAP
Replies: 9
Views: 16662

Re: DLM, TVC and GAP

Yes, but if I write A diagonal matrix (F) with 1s on the diagonal but in F(2,2)=0 and I multiply this by a vector sw=swf = swugap~~swtvc, the algebra is the same, isn't it?
by fioramanti
Fri Jan 26, 2018 7:52 am
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: DLM, TVC and GAP
Replies: 9
Views: 16662

Re: DLM, TVC and GAP

The cold reality is the TVC's doesn't really change the fact that no one has come up with a GAP-PC model that produces results without them being force-fed into the model through various restrictions. This is very depressing :( The only thing that appears slightly off about the model is putting the...
by fioramanti
Wed Jan 24, 2018 4:03 pm
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: DLM, TVC and GAP
Replies: 9
Views: 16662

Re: DLM, TVC and GAP

Ok. The model is:
by fioramanti
Wed Jan 24, 2018 11:17 am
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: DLM, TVC and GAP
Replies: 9
Views: 16662

Re: DLM, TVC and GAP

Thank you Tom,

"mi" is the slope of the trend, which is a second order random walk.

The trend is:
u*(t)=u*(t-1)+mi(t-1)+noise
mi(t)=mi(t-1)+noise

Marco
by fioramanti
Wed Jan 24, 2018 7:01 am
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: DLM, TVC and GAP
Replies: 9
Views: 16662

DLM, TVC and GAP

Dear Tom, Based on SSM course 2.0, I'm currently trying to adapt your version of the Matheson & Stavrev (2013) time varying coefficients to (a simplified version of - no ugap lags in the Phillips Curve) GAP. In particular I started by changing (as least as possible) the constrained version of yo...
by fioramanti
Wed Dec 20, 2017 4:24 am
Forum: Examples and Sample Code
Topic: Matheson-Stavrev EL 2013
Replies: 8
Views: 31241

Re: Matheson-Stavrev EL 2013

TomDoan wrote:Have you looked at the descriptions of the options on the DLM instruction?

https://estima.com/ratshelp/dlminstruction.html
Yes I have, but the explanation is a bit intricate to me.

Thank you,
M
by fioramanti
Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:19 am
Forum: Examples and Sample Code
Topic: Matheson-Stavrev EL 2013
Replies: 8
Views: 31241

Re: Matheson-Stavrev EL 2013

Dear Tom, I’m going through the SSM and DSGE course. I have some question on M&S following the file “ekfconstrain.rpf”, in the part which is not documented in the SSM handbook because it belongs to the constrained version of the code. Could you please add some more explanation on the following p...
by fioramanti
Thu Apr 06, 2017 11:12 am
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: Lauback-Williams Natural Interest Rate Paper
Replies: 11
Views: 22328

Re: Lauback-Williams Natural Interest Rate Paper

Tom,
Just a clarification. In your file of L&W(2003), by the end, the second "header" of the graph for the "agrate" should't be "Trend/Potential Output Growth Rate"?
Thanks
by fioramanti
Wed Apr 05, 2017 11:06 am
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: Lauback-Williams Natural Interest Rate Paper
Replies: 11
Views: 22328

Re: Lauback-Williams Natural Interest Rate Paper

And that doesn't change the fact that the results are highly dependent upon the sample, and are even highly dependent upon the method used for initializing the Kalman filter.
I can't help but ... :cry:
by fioramanti
Wed Apr 05, 2017 10:52 am
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: Lauback-Williams Natural Interest Rate Paper
Replies: 11
Views: 22328

Re: Lauback-Williams Natural Interest Rate Paper

Dear Tom, Thank you. I found out that Williams has now posted a set R codes releted to the recent "Measuring the Natural Rate of Interest: International Trends and Determinants" ( http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/economists/jwilliams/HLW_Code.zip ). In the zip there is also the code ...
by fioramanti
Wed Apr 05, 2017 9:24 am
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: Lauback-Williams Natural Interest Rate Paper
Replies: 11
Views: 22328

Re: Lauback-Williams Natural Interest Rate Paper

Dear Tom, I'm trying to apply Laubach and Williams (2003) to Italian data. I have two questions about the RATS code: 1. There are 2 statements like "equation stage1eq * " while the manual says it should be "equation stage1eq depvar". What the "*" stands for? 2. It is no...
by fioramanti
Tue Oct 11, 2016 8:19 am
Forum: General Econometrics
Topic: inequality constraints and linreg (or nlls)
Replies: 2
Views: 7338

inequality constraints and linreg (or nlls)

Dear all, I have the following problem: I want to estimate a linear model of the form linreg DW # DW{1} UR_CYC_SUR{0 to 2} DLP DTOT DWS but under the constraints that the sum of the coefficients of CYC_SUR is not negative. Someting like: nonlin(parmset=decl) a0 b0 b1 b2 b3 b4 b5 nonlin(parmset=const...
by fioramanti
Wed Oct 05, 2016 3:08 pm
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: Time-Varying parameters in SSM
Replies: 10
Views: 16364

Re: Time-Varying parameters in SSM

Tom, Are you telling me that you managed to make gap and it's excel interface and data work, take the same data and replicating their results with rats using (as a staring point I suppose) the file I posted in the latest few days? That would be awesome! ...and how did you spot the " error in th...
by fioramanti
Wed Oct 05, 2016 12:03 pm
Forum: State Space Models/DSGE
Topic: Time-Varying parameters in SSM
Replies: 10
Views: 16364

Re: Time-Varying parameters in SSM

Dear Tom, You get the main point! Actual estimates of NAWRU are not driven by the data, but by the variances bounds with the aim to get new estimate as close as possible to previous estimates (but EC officials deny). In recent years this is producing a very cyclical NAWRU. This is what I try to show...