OPEN DATA "E:\phd\research\RATS\bubble_basic.xls"
CALENDAR(Q) 1984:4
DATA(FORMAT=XLS,ORG=COLUMNS) 1984:04 2009:02 y d p lp sp hp m2 comm_e comm_ne int_rate lp_nd lp_nb nltl $
 npa nltl_1



system(model=varmodel)
variables y d p comm_ne int_rate lp sp
lags 1 to 2
end(system)
estimate
*@VARLagSelect(lags=12, crit=aic)
*# y d p comm_ne nltl_1 lp int_rate sp
*@VARLagSelect(lags=12, crit=sbc)
*# y d p comm_ne nltl_1 lp int_rate sp
@VARIRF(model=varmodel,steps=15,page=byshocks)
@montevar(draws=50000, model=varmodel)

*source mcvardodrawsunit.src
*@MCVARDoDraws(model=varmodel,draws=1000,steps=10)
*@mcgraphirf(model=varmodel,center=median,percent=||.025,.975||,$
*shocks=||"GDP","Dividends","inflation","Commod.prices","expected credit losses","Provisions","share prices"||,$
*footer="95% Monte Carlo bands")