* * Example from page 809 * all 500 * * Generate the noise series and the driftless random walk. Note that this will * produce a different result each time you run it (and won't match the numbers in * the text). If you want to reproduce the same set of "random" numbers, put a * SEED instruction near the top of your program. * set u = %ran(1.0) set(first=0.0) ynd = ynd{1}+u * * The graphs like those in the text are created using the procedure BJIDENT (BJ * is short for Box-Jenkins). For the purposes of this, all you need is * * @BJIDENT(NUMBER=number of correlations) series * * The confidence bands for the "ynd" series spread out with increasing lag, * unlike the graphs shown in the text. This is because they use a different null * hypothesis: those in the text are based upon the null that all correlations are * zero, while those produced by BJIDENT has a sequence of nulls, where the lag * L+1 is tested for 0 allowing correlations at lags 1 to L to be non-zero. When * this is applied to the "u" series, the result is almost identical to assuming * all are zero, since they're close to zero anyway. * @bjident(number=30) u @bjident(number=33) ynd * * With the option DIFFS=1, BJIDENT does the autocorrelation graph of the series * (0 Differences) and its first difference. When applied to ynd, this will give * two graphs: the 0 difference will match exactly with the one above for ynd, and * the 1 difference will be very close to the one above for u. (The only * difference is that the latter is done with one less data point). * @bjident(number=33,diffs=1) ynd