*
* Example BIRTHMAR.DAT from pp 389-390
*
open data birthmar.dat
calendar(q) 1985
data(format=free,org=columns) 1985:1 1992:4 date birth marriage
*
boxjenk(sdiffs=1,const,ar=1,sma=1,define=birtheq) birth
*
uforecast(equation=birtheq,stderrs=efse) forecast 33 68
set lower 33 68 = forecast+%invnormal(.025)*efse
set upper 33 68 = forecast+%invnormal(.975)*efse
*
print(picture="*.##") 33 68 forecast efse lower upper
*
graph(footer="Figure 9-9. Forecast of quarterly births") 2
# birth 1985:1 1992:4
# forecast
*
graph(footer="Figure 9-10. 95% prediction interval for BIRTHMAR.DAT") 3
# birth 1985:1 1992:4
# lower / 2
# upper / 2